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2028 Presidential Election Odds

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2028 Election Key Dates

Primary Elections BeginFebruary 2028
Super TuesdayMarch 2028
Democratic National ConventionSummer 2028
Republican National ConventionSummer 2028
Election DayNovember 7, 2028

How to Read 2028 Election Odds

Prediction market prices directly represent implied probabilities. When a candidate trades at 32¢ (or $0.32), the market implies a 32% probability of that candidate winning.

Contracts pay out $1 if the candidate wins and $0 if they lose. This creates a financial incentive for traders to price candidates accurately based on all available information—polls, news, fundraising data, and expert analysis.

Quick Reference:

  • • 50%+ = Market favorite (more likely than not to win)
  • • 25-50% = Competitive candidate with real chance
  • • 10-25% = Dark horse / longshot with upside
  • • <10% = Unlikely but not impossible

2028 Republican Presidential Candidates

The 2028 Republican field is expected to include Vice President J.D. Vance, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and potentially other national figures. As the sitting Vice President, Vance would enter the race with significant advantages including name recognition and the ability to claim credit for administration policies.

Note: Donald Trump is ineligible for the 2028 presidential election, having served two terms. The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution limits presidents to two terms in office.

2028 Democratic Presidential Candidates

The 2028 Democratic field may include California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and other rising stars in the party.

Without an incumbent running, the Democratic primary is expected to be highly competitive. Prediction markets will provide real-time probability estimates as the field takes shape.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is leading the 2028 presidential election odds?
Visit Election.Market for the latest real-time odds on the 2028 presidential election.
Can Trump run for president in 2028?
No. The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution prohibits any person from being elected president more than twice. Donald Trump served as the 45th President (2017-2021) and was elected to a second term (2025-2029), making him constitutionally ineligible for the 2028 election.
When is the 2028 presidential election?
The 2028 presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. Primary elections begin in early 2028, with party conventions in the summer.
How accurate are prediction markets for presidential elections?
Academic research suggests prediction markets have been slightly more accurate than poll aggregates in recent elections. They incorporate information faster and have financial incentives for accuracy. However, they can still be wrong—use them as one input among many, not a definitive forecast.
Where can I trade on the 2028 election?
Polymarket is the largest prediction market for U.S. elections and operates globally (not available to U.S. residents). Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available to U.S. residents. Election.Market aggregates data from these platforms but does not facilitate trading.

Track Live 2028 Election Odds

Monitor real-time prediction market prices for the 2028 presidential race, party nominations, and key candidate probabilities.

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